Long-Tail Politics
2008’s first Newsweek offers:
[The Long Tail] is now playing a part in our politics, where Paul’s recent rise reflects the same dynamics. In 1988 his libertarian message—reduce government at home, resist military meddling abroad, restore the gold standard—went unheard. Today, it’s spreading quickly online and connecting activists across the country, a few people at a time. Paul may still be the longest of long shots. But he’s a long shot who can lure 5,000 supporters to his rallies and more than triple his entire ‘88 war chest in a single $6.6 million day. That’s a whole new level of high-passion, low-polling politics—and in a long-tail world, others are bound to follow. “Ron Paul is the harbinger,” says Nick Gillespie, editor in chief of the libertarian magazine Reason. “Just as the major entertainment companies are producing far more varied and individualized fare, I think we’re going to see more and more political candidates who are more interesting in and of themselves but deliver smaller and smaller numbers.”
Over the decades, Americans have become increasingly unhappy about having to cram themselves into one of two “big box” parties. Seven of the last 10 elections were won with less than 51 percent of the vote; in three of the last four, no candidate won a majority. Today, two thirds of U.S. adults (and a full three quarters of 18- to 30-year olds) say they would consider voting for an independent candidate in the next election. The rise of Howard Dean (another anti-establishment Web phenom) and the recall of California Gov. Gray Davis mirrored this breakdown of consensus; 2008’s fragmented Republican field is further proof. “The long tail is not the political center,” economist Arnold Kling has said. “It is not a third party waiting to form. It is not a coalition. It is not a ’silent majority’ of either the right or left. It is simply every variety of political belief that does not fit within the two major parties.” As the Web allows niche voters to form communities, raise money and get heard, it’s inevitable that the major-party machines will clash with—and ultimately accommodate—the individualized constituencies they’re struggling to serve.
Society is better served by a variety of voices and approaches, especially ones we disagree with. With elections becoming less and less relevant and more and more costly I’m encouraged by smaller new ideas emerging from long-tail candidates or beyond the machinations of electoral money-politics. This offers hope to fill a void of innovation and vision, abandoned by old politics for the sake of power and aggrandizement.
And if you haven’t read the Long Tail it is highly recommended. Whether in business, politics, activism, media, design, music — pretty much anything touched by the internet and technology — it is essential reading about change and where society is going.
The Long Tail, by Chris Anderson
Chris Anderson’s Blog
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